Genius, as Carl Sagan once put it, echoing an even earlier definition advanced by Albert Einstein, consists in the ability to see simplicity in the complex, to detect order where only chaos once existed.
To move forward with an alternative theory in this case we need to identify the weaknesses in the DRPS case. I acknowledge that this is hindsight and that hindsight is 20/20, but we need clarification.
Let’s look at the chronology of the boys’ movements. This chronology is based on DRPS reports and statements from various persons.
• At midnight on 17 March the party is going strong at Luna Cres. All six boys were in attendance. At some point Jay and Danny had words, and Danny was struck and left.
• At about 00:40, Jay, Michael and Robbi leave the party saying they were going to the marina.
• Around the same time, a local resident heard yelling and breaking of bottles at the small plaza north of Luna.
• Sometime after 00:40 Danny returns to the party.
• At 01:30 Jay calls from a pay phone to his girlfriend saying they were going to take a boat from the marina. She talked him out of it, and he said that he, Michael, and Robbi would walk back to Luna Cres and call a taxi.
• Around the same time, 01:30, Danny, Chad, and Jamie leave the party saying they were going to the marina. Assuming the timing is correct and the possible state of inebriation the boys were under, it would take them between 9 and 12 minutes to walk the 750 meters to the marina arriving between 01:39 and 01:42. We also assume that somewhere between 01:30 and 01:48, all six boys met up.
• At 01:48, Michael, Robbie, and Jamie were caught on the video camera at the marina.
• Depending on the DRPS report you read, a motor was heard on the lake at approximately 02:00 by some locals who were sleeping on their boat in the marina.
Now let’s take a closer look at this information.
Question 1: Did DRPS investigate the disturbance at the small mall north of Luna?
Question 2: What was the altercation between Jay and Danny and why did Danny return to the party?
Question 3: If Jay said that he was going home with Michael and Robbi, why did he return to the marina?
Question 4: Why did Jay not call for a taxi from the payphone from which he called his girlfriend?
Question 5: Assuming that Jay, Michael, and Robbi were returning to Luna Cres to catch a taxi then they must have met up with Danny, Jamie, and Chad who were on their way to the marina. Did they join and go back to the marina?
Question 6: When they got back to the marina, why is that only Michael, Robbie, and Jamie were caught on the video camera, walking in single file, heads down? Where were Jay, Danny, and Chad?
Question 7: Assuming that the boys carried out some of the tasks ascribed to them by police, i.e. throwing a bicycle into the water, drinking and talking, moving from boat to boat looking for beer, trying to start a 13 ft boat with no success before jumping into a 14 ft boat, getting it started, and putting out to the lake; why did no one notice or hear anything?
Question 8: Why did the persons sleeping in their boat, and who were they, hear a boat on the lake but not the commotion in the marina?
Question 9: Did the three unidentified persons caught on tape at the marina at 02:10 hear anything?
We may never know the answers to these questions, but taken as a whole, they raise a reasonable doubt as to the conclusion of DRPS.